How Bank of America Sees Tariffs Settling Around 15% Globally

Trade tensions often spark fears of runaway tariffs disrupting business planning. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan confirms that after months of uncertainty, US tariffs are stabilizing near 15% for many countries in 2025. This geographic leveling matters because it transforms tariff policy from a chaotic risk into a manageable trade floor. "Buyers and sellers can plan again when rules become clearer," Moynihan said.

But the simplicity of a 15% tariff floor masks a more complex system at work, where exceptions for China and the USMCA show how strategic constraints still shape trade advantage. Moynihan highlighted that tariffs for China remain elevated due to national security issues like rare earth minerals, AI tech, and batteries. Meanwhile, the USMCA agreement stands apart as a special policy track, addressing local labor and trade dynamics with its scheduled 2026 review.

This leveling of tariffs does not end challenges for many businesses, however. For smaller firms, constraints shifted from tariff rates to workforce availability, pressing immigration policies into the spotlight. Moynihan emphasized, "The issue now is labor access, not just tariffs."

Understanding this shift reveals trade policy as a system evolving from unpredictable shocks to stable, if still strategic, constraints that operators must navigate.

Why Flat Tariffs Are Misunderstood as Just Cost-Cutting

Many analysts see the flattening of tariffs at 15% as simple rate reduction from previous higher spikes. They miss that this is a deliberate repositioning of constraints to create a manageable trade framework. The flat baseline frees businesses from navigating wildly varying rates and sudden increases, transforming tariffs from an exponential cost risk into a known planning parameter.

This shift resembles systems moves in other domains, such as how Wall Street’s tech selloff reveals profit lock-in constraints. By stabilizing regulatory inputs, businesses can focus on innovation and growth rather than risk mitigation. This leveling also reveals why China’s tariffs stay elevated—those are targeted leverage points protecting supply chains critical to national security rather than generalized trade friction.

Tariffs as Strategic Constraint Layers, Not Just Taxes

Looking at tariff levels across countries, the 15% floor is only the broad baseline. Higher tariffs remain for those refusing to open markets or ease non-tariff hindrances. This approach essentially creates a layered system where the constraint (tariff) is a dial, not a binary shutter.

For instance, unlike competitors with unpredictable duty rates on imports, many businesses now face a clear 15% cost layer, reducing transaction friction. This advantage echoes how platforms like OpenAI scaled ChatGPT by creating predictable usage and distribution frameworks rather than random user acquisition bursts.

Meanwhile, the USMCA’s separate track shows the limits of blanket tariff systems—trade deals with labor and policy reviews add non-tariff constraints that require ongoing negotiation rather than fixed pricing. This calls for businesses watching for changes not in cost percentage but in system-level terms operating above tariffs.

Forward Moves: Labor Constraints Outpace Tariffs for Small Firms

The system shift from tariff volatility to labor availability marks the actual new bottleneck. Moynihan pointed out how falling interest rates have eased capital costs, but labor shortages and immigration policies now dominate operational risk.

This means businesses must pivot strategies to workforce access and regulatory navigation more than tariff avoidance. It flips traditional trade leverage on its head—where tariffs were once the biggest variable, now system design around labor mobility creates competitive advantage.

This dynamic opens a path for regions with more flexible labor policies to capture growth at the expense of tariff-only stable economies. Countries that understand this complex constraint layering can build strategic systems that embrace multiple levers: tariffs, labor, and policy.

"Knowing which constraint to solve first unlocks the real competitive edge," says Moynihan’s outlook.

For operators, this means watching tariffs not as unpredictable shocks but as base infrastructure, and focusing leverage efforts on workforce and policy adaptation. This systemic analysis parallels insights from US labor market shifts impacting investment and how Walmart restructured leadership for growth amid change.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the expected global tariff rate according to Bank of America?

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan confirms that US tariffs are stabilizing near 15% globally for many countries by 2025, creating a more predictable trade environment.

Why do tariffs for China remain elevated?

Tariffs for China remain higher due to national security concerns involving rare earth minerals, AI technology, and batteries, serving as strategic leverage points rather than general trade friction.

How does the USMCA agreement affect tariffs?

The USMCA agreement operates on a separate policy track with a scheduled review in 2026, addressing labor and trade dynamics with non-tariff constraints beyond just fixed tariff rates.

What new business challenges are emerging beyond tariffs?

Smaller firms now face workforce availability and immigration policies as greater challenges than tariffs, with labor access becoming the primary operational risk according to Moynihan.

How do flat tariffs create advantages for businesses?

Flat tariffs at a 15% baseline transform tariff policy from unpredictable spikes to a manageable cost layer, reducing transaction friction and enabling clearer business planning.

What does the shift from tariff volatility to labor constraints mean for businesses?

The shift means that businesses need to focus their strategies on workforce access and regulatory adaptation rather than solely on tariff avoidance to maintain competitive advantage.

How are tariffs positioned as strategic constraints?

Tariffs act as layered constraints, with a broad 15% baseline and higher tariffs for countries with restricted markets, functioning as adjustable dials rather than fixed taxes.

What role do labor policies play in capturing economic growth?

Regions with more flexible labor policies can capture growth opportunities by navigating the shift to labor constraints outperforming tariff-related challenges.