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What Anthropic’s IPO Plans Reveal About the AI Bubble

Paul Allen

03 Dec 2025 • 6 min read

Investor excitement is fueling eye-popping AI valuations despite consumer signs of saturation. Anthropic is reportedly preparing for an IPO that could value the company at $300 billion as early as 2026. Yet central banks including the Bank of England and prominent investors like Michael Burry warn this is part of a broader speculative bubble inflated by excess liquidity. “Markets awash with cheap money encourage risky asset valuations,” says BIS General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos.

Contrary to Optimism, Liquidity Drives AI Valuation Risks

Market consensus views Anthropic’s IPO as a financier’s play to seize AI’s growth, overlooking how macro liquidity fundamentally drives the bubble. With U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut bets rising and President Trump’s Fed replacement candidate signaling looser monetary policy, abundant cheap capital inflates valuations beyond fundamentals. This echoes the dot-com bubble scenario that Michael Burry warned resembles today’s tech market. It’s a reminder that bubbles form when rules governing leverage in asset markets relax—a dynamic explored in Why Wall Street’s Tech Selloff Actually Exposes Profit Lock-In Constraints.

AI Subscription Growth Hides Underlying Customer Concentration

Deutsche Bank data shows Anthropic’s Claude and Perplexity subscriptions growing 7-fold and 46% respectively this year, but from much smaller bases compared to OpenAI. Meanwhile, OpenAI’s ChatGPT subscription revenue growth is flattening in major European markets, signaling subscription fatigue. This suggests that the AI market’s apparent growth masks concentrated customer bases and saturation constraints. Unlike OpenAI, Anthropic has a clearer path to profitability, but profitability alone won’t stop bubbles inflated by liquidity winds. Evidence from other sectors shows investing before validating market constraints leads to leverage traps, a theme discussed in Why AI Actually Forces Workers To Evolve Not Replace Them.

Excess Leverage in Financial Markets Propagates Bubble Risks

BIS warns hedge funds borrow at zero haircut against government bonds, allowing leverage equal to or exceeding collateral value. This unchecked leverage floods the system with cheap cash chasing assets like AI stocks. Such mechanisms make valuations fragile—one interest rate hike or credit tightening can cascade into sharp market corrections. U.K. pension funds have quietly shifted away from U.S. tech equities, reflecting an undercurrent of systemic risk unseen by public exuberance. This financial leverage dynamic is a hidden constraint tying tech valuations to macro credit cycles as explained in Why S&P’s Senegal Downgrade Actually Reveals Debt System Fragility.

Who Should Watch and What’s Next for the AI Market

Operators must focus on the liquidity constraint embedded in central bank policies and hedge fund leverage practices. The potential Anthropic IPO is a lever point that exposes how far AI valuations depend on continuing excess liquidity rather than sustainable customer growth. Those who recognize this can position by scrutinizing subscription saturation and capital structure robustness, not hype. “Bubbles burst when leverage rules quietly shift, not when fundamentals break,” marks the path forward for investors and operators alike.

As the AI market evolves and faces distinct subscription challenges, tools like Blackbox AI can provide developers and tech companies the support they need to navigate these dynamics effectively. By harnessing AI-powered coding assistance, you can focus on building robust platforms that stand resilient against market volatility while ensuring productivity and growth. Learn more about Blackbox AI →

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Anthropic’s projected IPO valuation and timeline?

Anthropic is reportedly preparing for an IPO that could value the company at $300 billion as early as 2026, indicating significant investor enthusiasm for AI technology.

How does liquidity influence AI company valuations?

Excess liquidity, driven by central bank policies and low-interest rates, inflates AI valuations beyond fundamentals, creating a speculative bubble according to experts like BIS General Manager Pablo Hernández de Cos and investor Michael Burry.

What does subscription growth for Anthropic’s AI tools look like?

Data from Deutsche Bank shows subscriptions for Anthropic’s Claude AI growing 7-fold this year, while Perplexity subscriptions increased by 46%, although from relatively smaller bases compared to competitors like OpenAI.

Is there evidence of saturation in AI subscription markets?

Yes, OpenAI's ChatGPT subscription growth is flattening in major European markets, signaling subscription fatigue and suggesting AI market growth may mask customer concentration and saturation constraints.

What risks do financial market leverage pose to AI valuations?

Hedge funds borrowing at zero haircut against government bonds enable leverage equal to or exceeding collateral value, flooding markets with cheap cash. This leverage can cause fragile valuations and rapid corrections if credit conditions tighten.

How have UK pension funds responded to AI and tech stock risks?

UK pension funds have quietly shifted away from U.S. tech equities, reflecting concerns over systemic risk associated with inflated valuations and excessive leverage in financial markets.

What should investors focus on regarding the AI market’s future?

Investors should scrutinize subscription saturation rates and capital structure robustness rather than hype, considering how AI valuations depend on ongoing excess liquidity and not just sustainable customer growth.

What tools can help tech companies navigate AI market volatility?

Tools like Blackbox AI provide AI-powered coding assistance that helps developers build resilient platforms capable of withstanding AI market volatility while ensuring productivity and growth.